Credit Crunch Part II: Revenge of the Loan

Posted by admin on June 20, 2009
My Comments / 1 Comment

I was talking to a lawyer friend today. Get this: they’re a first-time buyer (FTB) earning $75,000 per annum. Normally the banks will jump on cops, lawyers, accountants, et al, as these professionals are deemed to be safe bets. The bank isn’t going out on a limb with these folk as compared to most of the population.

But this friend can’t get a loan from a bank. They’ve fallen foul of the new rules whereby you must show evidence of having genuine savings amounting to 5% of the property purchase price. This is approx $20,000 in the case of FTBs. Easy solution: get mum and dad to slip $20,000 into your account and Abracadabra!

Wrong! The banks are now insisting on seeing 3 month’s worth of bank statements proving these genuine savings. So if a FTB finds a property they want today, they will be refused a loan unless they’ve had $20,000 sitting in their accounts for the last 3 months. How many FTBs fit into that category? I would wager not that many percentage-wise. You could slip $20,000 into your account now and buy in 3 months, which would be …

Oops! End of September, just when the extra goodies in first-time buyers home owners grant (FHOG) expires! Which in essence if now making the FHOG a total joke because the very people it was intended to assist are having their legs cut out from under them with this “genuine savings” requirement. Now, I’m assuming if you were smart enough to get pre-approval that the banks will honour that.

Polish the crystal ball and we can see that September isn’t going to be the next start of the end of the property market struggling to tread water to keep afloat–remember, the banks just cut off the FTBs legs, and it’s harder to swim with no legs. The sinking will start again. It’s inevitable. Ask Charles Darwin, ask any Economics 101 student about Supply V Demand. No loans = no demand.

Make no mistakes. The Australian government is reliant on the property tax revenues that are keeping the country afloat. They will throw everything including the kitchen sink at it to keep it floating. But the problem is the Australian government will go bankrupt itself in the process of treading water. When that day comes, our beloved leader, Kevin Rudd, dedicated follower of the Fabian Society already has plans for that day. It all falls perfectly into his long-term cunning plan… sell Australia to China.

But that’s a story for another day.

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Inside info on interest rates

Posted by admin on June 16, 2009
My Comments / Comments Off

I have a contact high enough up in one of the major banks to be in the know, and friendly enough to share his information with me in advance of the general public, such as the recent bank interest rate rises. He somehow knows what the other banks are up to in detail. Don’t ask me how. Maybe they sit around at tea parties sharing inside information.

Anyway, you get the picture. He’s reliable. So rather than string this out, here it is in a nutshell:

The Reserve Bank is mighty miffed at being ignored by the banks. Again. So much so that they want to lower the base rate in an attempt to “stick it to the banks and show them who’s in charge.” Problem is the banks will win. They’re the ones with all the power because they have the money. The Reserve Bank has been reduced to no more than a figurehead, much like the Queen. The banks are still smarting from a cut in their margins ever since the Global Financial Crisis and they have slowly, inch by inch been clawing this back. They have shareholders to answer to and big fat paychecks to justify!

What does this have to do with anything? Well there could be a few games of silly-buggers about to take place to confuse the heck out of us, and the government is bound to get vocal again. But the facts are that the banks are putting up interest rates, no matter what the Reserve Bank does, no matter what the government says. Australia has the most expensive interest rates in the world (triple the rate of many Western countries) and those rates have little chance of moving lower, but a big chance of heading higher.

And inflation is on the way whether we like it or not. If you think your mortgage payments are high enough now, then put your house on the market and get out. Bank your profits whilst you can, like the banks do. Don’t let them steal your profits from under your nose.

The great Australian dream isn’t about owning your own home. It’s about enjoying our wonderful way of life.

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Charles Darwin and Property Evolution

Posted by admin on June 15, 2009
My Comments / Comments Off

The theory of evolution, according to Darwin, is simply put as survival of the fittest.

This basic premise of natural selection is responsible for humans not looking, nor limping around, like lopsided three-legged hairy jellyfish. The theory of evolution is also responsible for a culling of the weak, the infirm and those with inferior genes. Cruel and Nazi-ish, but fatally true.

Imagine if this wasn’t the case, if the reverse were true and the smart, fit and strong were at the bottom of the food chain instead, and the weak and stupid ruled the earth.

Enter Kevin Rudd.

Enter the warm stab of a steroidal injection to the first-time home buyers grant (FHBG) and the whole order of natural selection is turned on its head.

There was a reason that first-time buyers were unable to afford to purchase a property, and therefore a reason why they should not be buying. There was a reason that greedy property investors were mortgaged to their eyeballs and were starting to get caught with their pants down. Continue reading…

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Suburban dream lives on

Posted by admin on June 13, 2009
Property News / 1 Comment
DIVING into debt, Katie and Brett Nash are living the great Australian dream. Having boarded with Katie’s parents for a year to save a deposit, the Brisbane couple borrowed $350,000 to buy a four-bedroom brick house with a big back yard in the outer bayside suburb of Alexandra Hills in Brisbane six weeks ago.
But Brett then lost his job as a cement truck driver, so his wife is spending half her take-home pay as a nurse to meet the $1900-a-month mortgage. Despite the difficulties, the Nashes are delighted they will no longer have to pay “dead rent” to a landlord.
“You’ve got to get into the market some time,” Katie reasons. “It’s for security. We were paying out dead money in rent – I paid $17,000 in rent one year – but buying is an investment.”
Brett, 28, does not feel that his life is any tougher than that of his grandparents’ self-sacrificing generation. “I think a lot of people these days are probably a bit more selfish and want everything,” he says.
“Our grandparents wouldn’t have contemplated things like travelling or spending $500 on a pair of shoes. Nowadays there’s more to be had, and everyone wants everything now.”
The Nashes are among a record number of Australians who took on a mortgage in April, as first-home buyers rushed to cash in on the federal government’s first-home buyers grant ($14,000 for established homes and $21,000 for new properties) before it is phased out from September.
Despite staggering under historically high costs of housing, generation Y has not lost any of the enthusiasm for home ownership that seems embedded in the Australian psyche.
The trend worries Julian Disney, director of the Social Justice Project at the University of NSW and chairman of the National Affordable Housing Summit, a coalition of housing industry and community organisations. He fears that historically low interest rates and high government subsidies are luring young home buyers into a false security. “At the moment prices are still high but interest rates are low, so it looks like you’re getting a cheap deal,” he tells Inquirer.
“It is a bit of an illusion. Any young person buying should be working out their finances on the basis that interest rates might rise at least 2 or 3 per cent in the coming decade.”
Disney notes that the ratio of house prices to household income has nearly doubled during the past 15 years. In the 1950s, the average house in Australia’s capital cities cost three years of average earnings; today it costs seven years of average earnings. And two-thirds of low-income households are now spending 30 per cent of their disposable income on housing: the benchmark for “housing stress”. Unless house prices keep falling, and faster, only those with secure jobs and good incomes, or a handout from a generous relative, will be able to buy their own home.
“We’ve still got a huge home purchase affordability problem and people are going to find it very hard to get into it unless they very unwisely over-extend themselves, or can seek family assistance,” Disney warns.
“The potential for serious family rifts arising in that situation is very great if the child can’t pay it back. It’s very dangerous.”
Disney is pleased the federal government is phasing out the first-home buyers bonus, arguing that it merely inflated prices by lining vendors’ pockets and luring low-income earners deeper into debt.
His solution? Stop dreaming. Long-term rentals, common in Europe, would remove the stigma from renting and give lessees greater security than short-term leases, and more flexibility than a mortgage.
“We really should junk the notion that this is the Australian dream because it makes people feel like failures if they’re renting,” Disney says.

DIVING into debt, Katie and Brett Nash are living the great Australian dream.

Having boarded with Katie’s parents for a year to save a deposit, the Brisbane couple borrowed $350,000 to buy a four-bedroom brick house with a big back yard in the outer bayside suburb of Alexandra Hills in Brisbane six weeks ago.

But Brett then lost his job as a cement truck driver, so his wife is spending half her take-home pay as a nurse to meet the $1900-a-month mortgage. Despite the difficulties, the Nashes are delighted they will no longer have to pay “dead rent” to a landlord.

“You’ve got to get into the market some time,” Katie reasons. “It’s for security. We were paying out dead money in rent – I paid $17,000 in rent one year – but buying is an investment.”

Brett, 28, does not feel that his life is any tougher than that of his grandparents’ self-sacrificing generation. “I think a lot of people these days are probably a bit more selfish and want everything,” he says.

“Our grandparents wouldn’t have contemplated things like travelling or spending $500 on a pair of shoes. Nowadays there’s more to be had, and everyone wants everything now.”

The Nashes are among a record number of Australians who took on a mortgage in April, as first-home buyers rushed to cash in on the federal government’s first-home buyers grant ($14,000 for established homes and $21,000 for new properties) before it is phased out from September. Continue reading…

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Fumbling in the dark

Posted by admin on June 12, 2009
My Comments / Comments Off

I only just launched this blog last night, so please give me a few days to get the hang of it and into the swing of it. I’m still feeling my way around in the dark.

I will start posting more topical articles and adding my take on things, much like I would on twitter. It’s baby steps at the moment though I’m afraid.

One thing I’m not keen on with blogs is just how much people like writing pages and pages of boring gumph just for the sake of it. They turn me off straight away, so I will endeavour to be short and sweet. Yes, I know I’ve posted two articles in their entirety– as I said, dark, lost, fumbling…

James

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Gearing for a housing deficit

Posted by admin on June 12, 2009
Property News / Comments Off

Property remains a solid investment but be aware there won’t always be low interest rates and rising rents.

A virtuous combo of low interest rates and a tight rental market is sparking renewed interest in residential property among investors.

Interest rates have now fallen to such low levels that, for the first time in years, astute buyers are able to find a selection of “positively geared” (or “positive cash flow”) investment properties: that is, dwellings where the rental income is greater than the mortgage repayments and other costs associated with owning the property.

This is in sharp contrast to the housing boom of recent times, when investors were willing to buy a property with rental income that was not sufficient to cover all their costs. That means they were negatively geared in the expectation of eventually making a healthy capital gain. In addition, they could generally expect tax benefits from their ongoing losses.

However, experts warn these circumstances may not last. In particular, interest rates could eventually start heading back up again, while continuing rises in unemployment and other factors may place downward pressure on rent levels. Continue reading…

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati

Property markets in Australasia up and down

Posted by admin on June 11, 2009
Property News / 4 Comments

The property market in Australasia is experiencing a mixed ride with some parts of the region reporting signs of recovery and others still struggling.

In New Zealand the latest published figures show that the numbers of new property listings have declined for the third month in a row, with listings in May dropping a further 5% on April.

It would appear that many sellers are adopting a wait and see attitude and only listing their property for sale if they have to. The May NZ Property Report shows that listings are now down 29% since the same time last year.

Asking prices are also down. The figures show they are 1% below those in April and 6% down on the market’s peak in October 2007.

But according to NZPR’s chief executive Alistair Helm prices are softening rather than collapsing and 2008 was a dormant period with many properties just sitting on the market.

But in Australia first time buyers are boosting the property market helped by low interest rates and government grants. According to Yvonne Chan, head of research at Australian Property Monitors, monthly auction figures for the year showed clearance rates were back to the levels they were in 2007.

‘The market has recovered from last year. Month on month clearance rates show some real promising signs and in Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates are around the long-term averages,’ she said.

But there is concern that buyers other than those seeking their first home need to start entering the market if there is to be a recovery. ‘All the action in the market this year has come from first home buyers and demand from first home buyers is definitely still very strong,’ Chan explained.

‘With government grants available and interest rates at an all-time low, there’s a lot of people who believe now is a good time to be entering the market,’ she added.

Tweet me Digg me!
  • Twitter
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
  • Sphinn
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • BlinkList
  • FriendFeed
  • Ping.fm
  • Propeller
  • Technorati